Tariffs are shifting. Sanctions regimes are expanding. Export controls are becoming more complex and, in some sectors, more punitive. Yet across much of the global market, employers are finding themselves caught in a familiar catch‑22: the need for experienced trade compliance professionals has never been greater, but approvals to hire them are coming under increasing scrutiny.
This tension is now a defining feature of the trade compliance labour market.
Complexity continues to rise
The policy backdrop explains much of the pressure. The past 18 months have seen a marked increase in trade interventions globally. According to the WTO, G20 economies introduced record levels of trade and trade‑related measures between October 2024 and October 2025, with the value of imports affected by non‑tariff measures increasing more than fourfold year on year, reaching USD 2.6 trillion: that’s roughly 14% of G20 merchandise imports.
Sanctions and export controls remain at the centre of that activity. Enforcement levels stayed historically high through 2025, with U.S. sanctions penalties alone totalling approximately USD 265 million for the year, including one individual enforcement action exceeding USD 215 million. In parallel, the EU and UK continue to expand sanctions architecture and enforcement capability, increasing expectations around ownership and control analysis, circumvention risk, and auditability.
At a practical level, this has pushed trade compliance teams deeper into day‑to‑day commercial decision‑making. Responsibilities that once sat largely within customs and regulatory functions now cut across procurement, supply chain planning, cost modelling and strategic sourcing.
As a result, demand remains strong for specialists in:
- tariff classification and origin analysis,
- export controls and sanctions interpretation,
- supply chain and landed cost assessment,
- and managing compliance risk across multiple jurisdictions.
Salary and labour data support this. Experienced trade compliance professionals are in high demand, with base salaries in the U.S. rising by 10–15% in some segments year on year, despite a generally softer hiring market elsewhere.
Economic caution meets regulatory pressure
Yet for many multinational organisations, this growth in complexity is colliding with a more cautious economic environment.
Inflation, interest rate uncertainty and geopolitical volatility continue to shape corporate decision‑making. Even where compliance risk is well understood, hiring decisions are being subjected to tighter controls. Headcount approvals take longer. Budgets are challenged. Teams are often asked to “do more with what they have,” even as regulatory exposure rises.
This creates a widening gap between what trade compliance teams need in operational terms and what the business is willing (or able) to approve immediately.
Rather than pulling back entirely, most organisations are adapting their hiring strategies.
How organisations are responding
Firstly, internal mobility and upskilling are becoming more prominent. Organisations are investing in existing staff, particularly in procurement and logistics, to close trade compliance skills gaps. However, recent research suggests that many teams still lack the hands‑on expertise required to respond quickly to regulatory change.
Secondly, hiring is being delayed rather than cancelled. Many roles remain approved “in principle” but are subject to extended timelines. Employers are watching policy developments closely, particularly around tariffs and export controls, before making long‑term resourcing commitments.
The emerging catch‑22
2026 is a high pressure environment for trade compliance leaders. Compliance expectations continue to rise, but the path to expanding teams is less straightforward than it was in prior cycles.
This is the catch‑22 now playing out across the market: compliance risk is higher, enforcement tolerance is lower, and yet the bar for headcount approval has moved upward.
In this environment, trade compliance functions are being forced to become more strategic in how they articulate their value. The conversation is shifting towards compliance as a mechanism for protecting revenue, preventing disruption and enabling supply chain resilience – and these themes are increasingly recognised at board level.
Recruitment is happening in trade compliance. It is not slowing - but the dynamics have shifted. Hiring is more selective, more flexible, and under greater scrutiny than before.
